Are the Prices in Jacksonville Coming Down on Residential Homes?

Are residential home prices in Jacksonville finally coming down?

The short answer is yes, in some areas and price ranges—but not across the board. Jacksonville has shifted into a market where buyers generally have more choices and negotiating power than they did a few years ago, but every neighborhood and every home is different.

What I'm Seeing in the Jacksonville Housing Market

One of the most important things to understand about real estate statistics is that the numbers can change considerably depending on what you're measuring.

Are we talking about Jacksonville? Duval County? Northeast Florida? Single-family homes only? Are we looking at median price, average price, or home values?

That's why I don't believe buyers or sellers should make a major decision based on one headline or one statistic.

What I see in the market is more important: buyers have choices again.

Inventory is healthier, homes generally aren't flying off the market the way they did during the pandemic years, and sellers have to pay much more attention to pricing, condition, and competition.

Jacksonville Is a Much Better Market for Buyers

We're no longer in the kind of market where buyers should expect to compete against 10 or 15 other offers on every good house.

That doesn't mean good houses don't sell quickly. They absolutely can.

Some homes sell almost immediately. Occasionally a property is essentially sold before it ever hits the open market, and once it is entered into the MLS, the statistics can show it selling within a day.

On the other side, you have homes that are overpriced, need substantial work, or simply don't show well. Those properties can remain on the market for months.

That's why I always caution people about looking at an average days-on-market number and assuming that's how long their house will take to sell—or how long the house they want to buy will remain available.

The right house at the right price can still sell very quickly.

Interest Rates Are Still Affecting Home Prices

One of the biggest factors affecting our market continues to be mortgage interest rates.

Rates bouncing around in the 6% range and sometimes into the low 7s have changed what many buyers can afford. A difference of even one percentage point can make a significant difference in someone's monthly payment and purchasing power.

That has kept some buyers on the sidelines and given the buyers who remain in the market more negotiating power.

But there is another side to that.

What happens if interest rates come down?

More buyers may decide it's time to purchase. That increased demand could put upward pressure on prices again and increase competition for the best houses.

That's why trying to time the housing market perfectly can be so difficult.

Do You Wait for the Price—or the Interest Rate?

This is the big question I get from buyers.

Should I wait for home prices to come down?

Should I wait for interest rates to come down?

The problem is that you may not get both at the same time.

If interest rates fall substantially, more buyers may enter the market and home prices could increase. If prices fall, interest rates could remain high—or even move higher.

Nobody knows exactly what either one will do.

And while you're waiting, there's something else you have to consider:

It is always hard to find that perfect home.

You can change flooring. You can paint walls. You can remodel a kitchen.

You can't easily change the neighborhood, the lot, the school district, the floor plan, or where the house sits.

If you find the home that really fits your family and you can comfortably afford the payment, I believe that deserves serious consideration.

Remember What Happened in 2020 and 2021

A lot of people remember the extremely low mortgage rates of 2020 and 2021.

What sometimes gets forgotten is what buyers had to go through to get a house.

Inventory was extremely tight. Multiple offers were common. Buyers sometimes offered above asking price and still didn't get the house. In many cases, buyers had to make decisions very quickly because somebody else wanted the same property.

Low interest rates were wonderful if you already owned the house or were able to successfully purchase one.

But finding and winning the house you wanted could be extremely difficult.

That's why I tell my buyers not to look only at the interest rate.

Look at the entire opportunity.

Buy the House and Refinance Later?

If I found the house I truly wanted today, could comfortably afford the payment, and felt I was getting a fair price, I would rather consider buying that house than gamble on trying to predict the perfect market.

If mortgage rates eventually come down enough to make refinancing worthwhile, refinancing may be an option.

Of course, there is no guarantee that interest rates will come down. Refinancing also has costs, and you still have to qualify for the new loan. So I would never recommend buying a house today based solely on the assumption that you'll refinance later.

You need to be able to afford the house at today's payment.

Think of a future refinance as a possible benefit—not as the reason the purchase works financially.

So, Are Jacksonville Home Prices Coming Down?

In portions of the Jacksonville market, yes. But I wouldn't describe our market as home prices simply collapsing.

What we're experiencing is a much more balanced environment than we had several years ago.

Some sellers are reducing prices. Buyers can negotiate on properties that have been sitting on the market. There may be opportunities to negotiate closing costs, repairs, rate buydowns, or other concessions.

At the same time, an attractive home in a desirable Jacksonville, Mandarin, St. Johns, Fleming Island, Ponte Vedra, or Beaches-area neighborhood that is priced correctly can still sell quickly.

Real estate is local—even down to the subdivision and sometimes the street.

My Final Takeaway

I wouldn't buy a house simply because someone tells me prices are going up.

And I wouldn't avoid buying one simply because someone tells me prices are coming down.

I would ask a much more important question:

Have I found the right house, at a price I believe is fair, with a payment I can comfortably afford?

If the answer is yes, then I believe it's worth seriously considering the purchase rather than trying to predict the exact bottom of home prices and the exact bottom of mortgage rates at the same time.

I've been through many different real estate markets, and one thing I've learned is that there is almost never a perfect time to buy.

But there can be a right home at the right time for you.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in Northeast Florida?

I'm Michael Nobles with CrossView Realty, and I work with buyers and sellers throughout Jacksonville and the surrounding Northeast Florida communities.

If you're considering buying, I'd be happy to sit down with you, look at the actual numbers, and help determine what makes sense for your situation—not just what the headlines say the market is doing.

Michael Nobles | CrossView Realty
904-465-3536
michaelnoblesrealtor.com